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Articles by Alan & Akemi

The Stock Market Rollercoaster

This week, the U.S. stock market began a new rollercoaster of volatility. For investors who were not fully emotionally-recovered from February and March, this brought back unwelcomed queasiness. Many are wondering how significant this latest market decline is, and what it could indicate for the weeks and months ahead. So far, we are nowhere near the level of declines seen earlier in the year. However this week evoked fears of a Double Dip or a “W” shaped recovery and created a few frightful news media headlines.   

The recent stock market decline was led by drops in some of the largest technology companies, which make up a significant percentage of the current S&P 500 index. Keep in mind it was precisely these tech stocks which soared to all-time highs in our current market rally. In fact, just five companies in the S&P 500 index with average year-to-date (YTD) return of approximately 48% lifted the entire index to break-even territory, despite many companies within the index continuing to be down approximately 5% YTD.[i]  Mid-week, Apple shares fell more than 6%, while Facebook and Amazon were down more than 4%. Microsoft slid 5.4% and Netflix closed 1.8% lower. Alphabet (Google) lost 3.6% of its value.[ii] However, this week’s drop is a small fraction of the 50% rally since the March 2020 low.

Recently, we’ve struggled with the disconnect between the current state of the U.S. economy and the stock market, which has climbed back to record highs. The recent, although brief selloff, appears to be from day-traders who have begun to feel less optimistic or are taking short-term profits off the table. It is impossible to predict if this could turn into panic or if the market will resume its climb.

What we do know is that the unemployment rate is continuing to decrease. The jobs picture has improved for the fourth month in a row. However, that still means roughly 8.5%[iii] of Americans continue to be out of work, which is not good for the overall economic recovery.

We also know that the Federal Reserve Board, is committed to keeping interest rates low through 2021. The Fed is steadfast on the stabilization of the U.S. markets. Congress is currently debating another round of relief for Americans. Although the $500 billion “skinny” coronavirus package did not pass this week, it is believed this could reinvigorate negotiations about a larger $1.5 trillion COVID relief bill from the White House. With the upcoming election, Democrats and Republicans alike would benefit from passing another substantial aid package to Americans in need.[iv]

There is great uncertainty about whether we will see a resurgence in the COVID pandemic.  We have seen South Asia, Australia and Europe successfully stave off a second COVID wave from wide-spread contagion. Further, a COVID vaccine could help Americans get back to “normal” by summer of 2021.

With a November election around the corner, anxiety is at an all-time high, for good reason. Tax reform and the budget for government programs like Medicare and Social Security will be the focus once control of the Senate and a President is determined. It is likely that many or all of these factors will continue to create volatility in the stock market through the end of the 2020.

Investors shouldn’t be surprised if and when the stock market pulls back from our current record highs. If the past is indicative of the future, what we have learned from prior market declines is that the U.S. is resilient. In every instance, through wars, recessions, and even pandemics, the market has eventually recovered from downturns to post new market highs. The next bear market, whenever that may come, should be no different.

This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  or performance returns of any Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  Investments client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


[i] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/19/tech-stocks-markets/

[iii] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54029361

[iv] https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/gop-covid-relief-bill-fails-in-senate-next-steps-for-stimulus-package-and-check/

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The Depth of the Recession-By definition, a recession is a decline in economic activity for two consecutive quarters.

The current recession officially started in the first quarter, with a 5% decline before the country was slammed by the COVID-19 pandemic.  But the pandemic has definitely made itself felt in the economy.  Most of us, by now, saw that the U.S. economy’s second quarter lost (according to the headlines) 32.9% of economic activity—the worst single-quarter drop since World War II.  By way of perspective, the previous record was a 10% drop in 1958, and the worst of the Great Recession saw an 8.4% annualized GDP drop in the fourth quarter of 2008.

What was NOT widely reported is that this is an annualized figure, meaning that the economy would actually lose roughly 33% of its total only if all four quarters declined at that same rate.  The actual economic shrinkage was 9.5%; that is, the overall economy in the second quarter was 9.5% smaller than during the previous quarter.

And you probably didn’t see it reported that economic activity actually began to rebound in May and June, after a disastrous March and April.  Factory production and construction appear to be rebounding, although travel and leisure, including airline travel and visits to amusement parks, continue to struggle.  The unemployment rate has also fallen, from nearly 15% in April to 11.1% currently.  However, it should be noted that today’s unemployment rate is higher than it was at any time during the Great Recession.  The last week in July marked the 19th consecutive week in which initial jobless claims totaled at least 1 million.

This is not an attempt to sugar coat the current recessionary environment; the chart speaks for itself.  We have experienced slow economic growth in the years since the Great Recession, and now growth has turned decisively negative as the country deals with shutdowns, social distancing and increased hospitalizations.  States like Florida, Texas, California and Arizona may have to reimpose lockdown orders to stem the out-of-control pandemics, and some other states that have largely escaped the worst impact could suddenly become coronavirus victims. 

But we should not ignore the positive data in the midst of the downturn.  Congress is debating another bailout package for families at risk, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that disposable personal income and the savings rate both jumped in the second quarter.  In fact, the personal savings rate has risen from 9.5% in the first quarter (already an unusually high number for Americans) to 25.7% in the second quarter.  This suggests that the CARES Act relief worked as intended.

Other figures have nowhere to go but up.  Consumer spending contracted at almost exactly the same rate as the economy (down 34.6% annualized) over the second quarter, and investment in new housing dropped 38.7%.  Both are now rising again, though whether that continues may depend on the next stimulus package.  The inflation rate dropped 1.9% in the second quarter as companies cut prices to boost sales.

It is impossible to predict whether the worst of the economic devastation caused by the pandemic is behind us.  There seems no question that other countries have done a better job of containing the virus than we have in America, and we all know that economic recovery will depend on getting people safely back to work.  This downturn will leave a permanent scar on many businesses and workers, and nobody expects the economy to get back fully on its feet until we find a vaccine that provides herd immunity.  But it also seems unlikely that the rest of the year will be as downright depressing as what we experienced in March and April.  Reports of U.S. economic demise are almost certainly premature.

Sources:https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/07/30/gdp-plunged-329-heres-why-it-matters/#73eaaf975943

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-suffers-titanic-329-plunge-in-2nd-quarter-gdp-shows-and-points-to-drawn-out-recovery-2020-07-30

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/u-s-economy-shrinks-at-record-32-9-pace-in-second-quarter

The first: unemployment compensation.  You may be surprised to learn that unemployment insurance payments, even if they stem from the pandemic fund, have to be reported as taxable income.  Future legislation may change that, but for now: taxable. Not taxable: the stimulus checks themselves, child support payments and life insurance proceeds.  The article also notes that any income you might have received from illegal activities—including the fair market value of anything you stole on the date you stole it, should also be included on your tax form.  We’re going to go out on a limb and assume that provision doesn’t apply to you.

This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  or performance returns of any Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  Investments client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Making Sense of the Market

Investors have been provided a world class macro and micro economics lesson in 2020. Only half way through the year, we’ve navigated the end of a stock market cycle, the introduction of a new global pandemic, a social justice uprising and misguided leadership from the President through it all. It kind of feels like the kids were left at home alone and the house is on fire. In panic, the natural reaction is often to first scream in fear. However, as creatures innately wired for survival, the next step is to dig deep for logic and find a way out of the fire.

In the first quarter of this year, we saw a 35% decline from the peak of the market in mid-February to the bottom in mid-March as measured by the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, the broadest measure of the US stock markets.[i]  As of the second quarter close, the Wilshire 5000 made an amazing 41% recovery from the market low. However, that still leaves us down 4.6% from our starting market value in January 2020, or down 8.4% from the market high in February. The same story of Q1 losses, followed by a strong Q2 recovery but a net loss for the year resonates true not only in the US Large, Mid and Small cap indices, but also in the international, emerging markets, real estate and commodities indices.[ii] The bottom line is year-to-date losses are prevalent across most market sectors.

However, the technology heavy Nasdaq Composite Index which lost 30% during the late February Covid decline, recovered 47% from the market bottom in March through the end of Q2, and is one of the only indices to boast a gain year-to-date of 11%.

The bond market continues to sit at all-time lows. The 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Treasury bonds continue to offer a whopping 0.0% coupon rate, making the 30-year Treasury offering of 1.25% interesting, comparatively.[iii]  Remember when we thought a 1-year, 2% CD rate was “too low” last year?

In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted an improvement over May as the unemployment rate declined to 11.1% or 17.8 million unemployed persons.[iv] BLS attributed the improvement to job gains in the retail, trade, education and health services sectors, amongst others. This was an improvement of 2.2% over May. 

Finally, Covid-19 has wreaked havoc globally. Worldwide, there have been nearly 12 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, including over 500,000 deaths reported. The US has had approximately 3 million confirmed cases and over 130,000 deaths. On Tuesday July 7th, new Covid-19 cases in the US were growing by at least 5% in 37 states; a statistic likely diluted by limited testing availability.[v] In the face of Covid-19, the President has pulled the US out of the World Health Organization, cut future government funding for Covid-19 testing, and has taken steps to eliminate the Affordable Care Act which provides medical services to many Americans and unemployed persons who recently lost employer health plan benefits.

Many wonder what all these data points align to, like constellations in the sky that somehow tell both the past and the future at the same time. The truth is, everyone has an opinion, but no one truly knows where the stock market is headed.

The economy (interest rate, unemployment rate, etc.) is an indication of where we are now.  However, the stock market is forward-looking and often indicates where analysts predict we will be in a matter of months. The problem is, no one can accurately predict what tomorrow will look like in these turbulent times. In April and May when the stock market surged, many anticipated the US would have a better handle on the spread of Covid-19 by late summer and we’d be preparing to reopen schools and go back to work. On that trajectory, the US would be in a rebuilding phase and by summer of 2021, Covid-19 would be in our rear-view mirror. 

However, heading into July, Covid-19 cases are rising rather than falling and Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House health advisor, said daily new cases could rise from our current 60,000 per day to 100,000 new cases per day if the outbreak continues at its current pace. Then again, some news outlets report optimism that Pfizer reported encouraging trial results of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine, and Moderna noted they are on track to start Phase 3 of their Covid-19 vaccine study.

Oddly enough, despite all the unprecedented news and events, the conclusion is likely the same consistent message. We don’t know where the market is going next, but we do know that trying to accurately predict the market for an extended period of time is a losing battle. The most prudent strategy is to play a good defense without completely cashing out, which would lock in losses and eliminate any chance for recovery or growth. That means keeping fear and anger in check and investing in a manner that truly matches your risk tolerance. It was easy to be an aggressive growth investor when the market was booming. This market downturn might be an opportunity to reexamine your portfolio to ensure it is appropriate for the volatility, and possible opportunities, that lie ahead in the next six months to come.

This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  or performance returns of any Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  Investments client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

 
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Money Lessons from my Father

My father, Alan Kondo, has always been one of those “teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime,” kind of guys.  I hated it growing up!  I just wanted my “fish for the day.”  I realize now that he was investing in my financial knowledge and well-being; teaching me habits that he hoped I’d carry through adulthood.  As a parent, I find myself echoing him, telling my boys, “I’m not giving you a car, you’re going to earn it!” Like my father, I find more excitement on the giving end of these lessons, rather than the receiving end.  Here are some of the best pieces of advice my father gave me over the last 40 years.

Pay Yourself First

Growing up, I always had a “job” of sorts.  When I was 10, I got paid $0.05/envelope for folding, packing and licking shut envelopes for my mom’s mailing – I used it to buy ice cream.  When I was 16, I had a job at a local restaurant to-go counter. To this day, I still can’t stand the smell of BBQ baked beans, but I was able to buy a used Honda with my restaurant earnings.  When I got my first “real job” out of college, I itched to think what I was going to buy next!  My dad sternly told me to Pay Yourself First.  I had no idea what this meant. Paying Yourself First means the first bill paid each month should be to yourself in the form of savings. The remainder of your paycheck can be used to pay groceries, bills and entertainment. 

With my father’s help, I opened my first 401k savings account, and I saw my paycheck shrink by 30%. My father explained that the earlier I saved for my retirement, the sooner retirement would come. That’s because time is on my side, and the retirement savings will have compounded growth as dividends and interest accumulate and the stock market grows. Although a stock market pull back like the Great Recession or Covid-19 can be detrimental to an investment portfolio in a short window of time, over a working career, those dips can be offset by recovery and future market growth. Saving early can keep retirement goals on track for the long-haul.

Paying Yourself First also means having an emergency fund of six months to one-year of living expenses in a cash or CDs.  That way if something unexpected like Covid-19 happens, you have a safety net to hold you over, and you don’t have to lock in losses by selling investments that are temporarily priced low. 

 Only Take Necessary Risks

When it comes to my outlook on risk, I’ve had several life phases. As a child, I was afraid of crossing the street. As a teenager, I thought nothing could hurt me. As an adult, I was wise enough to ask for advice.  When I asked my father how to invest, he quoted the adage of moderation. Risks are sometimes necessary, but don’t take risks for the excitement with money that you need.  In other words, don’t go to Vegas with your rent money.

For a retirement portfolio, diversification is one of the tried and true methods for capturing market gains, reducing downside risk, and weathering market downturns to achieve a positive long-term return. In the history of the stock market, there is no 10-year period where a diversified portfolio would not yield a positive return, even including the Great Depression.  Investing in flashy stocks like Bitcoin can have a big return, or it can flop, so you should only invest in higher risk investments with money you can stand to lose. 

Don’t Live in Fear

Having lived through the magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994, I grew very weary of earthquakes at one point.  I told my father, “Why would anyone buy a house, if an earthquake is going to just crumble it to pieces one day?” My father validated my fears. Emotions are valuable in helping us to survive, thrive and avoid danger. However, strong emotions should be avoided when making important financial decisions. That’s because emotions can drive you to act quickly or irrationally out of fear or greed.  For example, many people cashed out of the stock market this March, when the Dow was down 34%, locking in losses and missing out on the subsequent 31% bounce back in the weeks that followed.

Instead, when making financial decisions, try to focus on research, metrics and analytics.  Numbers don’t have emotions and can help put things in perspective.  Finally, sleep on it.  Sometimes taking a break or stepping back can help you to see the bigger picture.  

We Are Only as Strong as Our Community

My father grew up in Toronto where Japanese were discouraged from congregating post WWII.  When he came to California, he was amazed by Japantown in San Francisco and Little Tokyo in Los Angeles.  He was also inspired by the Japanese Americans’ abilities to band together with all disparaged communities to create positive social change. Since my father did not grow up with these communities, he never took it for granted.

Growing up, I enjoyed our visits to Little Tokyo. I loved spending my weekends eating at the Tofu Festival, climbing the rocks in the JACCC courtyard, getting origami paper in the Village Plaza, and attending obons in the hot July weather. As an adult, I realize these experiences were fostered by a community in constant jeopardy. While I feel young and powerless, it is now my opportunity to support the community that raised me. Perhaps I can teach someone interested “to fish”, or I can stand up for someone who is unheard. In an environment where tax breaks and financial grants seem to go to the wealthy, I can write letters, vote, and donate to help local businesses make ends-meet.  Every bit of effort counts, and our community is counting on us. Sometimes it makes sense to invest in something with intangible returns.

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Thank you and Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers, uncles, grandfathers, and mentors who devote years of thankless lessons on to “deaf ears.”  I was listening Dad – thank you!

This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  or performance returns of any Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  Investments client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Our New Covid-19 World

As we struggle to re-open the country, many are steadfast on getting things “back to the way they were.”  It’s an ideal goal, but in many ways, Covid-19 may have already changed us, forever. 

Some economists say the pandemic accelerated us five years into the future from a technology perspective.  Companies that were once reluctant to adopt technology now find themselves devoting capital into IT with no disparity. In-person meetings with doctors, CPAs and financial advisors are now being done online; sometimes more efficiently, as we eliminate commuting, parking, and other related frustrations.  Corporations are also finding meetings that required flights and hoteling can be hosted online instead, for a fraction of the prior costs.  That can have ripple effects, boosting the future revenues of online meeting platform providers, IT support services and rapidly developing the telemedicine space. It may also mean long-term decreased revenue for airlines, the auto industry, oil and gas, and hotels, as business travel is reduced to an as-needed basis.

Many continue to work through Covid-19, but in new ways. Businesses who were reluctant to change the traditional model of working from an office daily are now finding that employees can be trusted to work from home. I call it the first win-win-win for society in a long time. Employers are able to “reduce their footprint” which is a public relations, green-sounding way of saying, cut their over-head costs.  By having more employees work from home, employers can immediately reduce their office lease expenses, land lines, utilities, and so-on. Employees who need to come into work occasionally can “hotel” or check-in to a day-use desk, allowing companies to rent smaller office space for their rotating work force. The second win is for the employee who gets to work from home occasionally or permanently. In busy metropolitan cities, the avoided commute time can be invaluable, adding tremendously to quality of life. For your wallet, working from home can also equate to reduced auto, insurance, maintenance and gas costs. Given these benefits, a recent study noted currently unemployed people might be willing to reduce their target starting salary for new jobs where they are allowed to work from home; an indirect but definite win for employers. The third win is for our environment. Los Angeles has notoriously polluted air, but a recent study by IQAir, a global air quality company based in Switzerland, reported LA saw some of the cleanest air of any major city in the world during April.[i] 

The loser in this win-win-win scenario is the commercial real-estate industry. It is predicted the landscape for commercial real-estate may be permanently changed. In past market downturns, real-estate was an inversely correlated asset that provided protection when the stock market was down.  However, in our post Covid-19 era, commercial real estate may not prove to be a safe haven. Many corporations plan to “reduce their footprint” by 30% in the coming years, providing instability in the commercial real estate space. We already saw the collapse of the once highly anticipated WeWork shared office space provider. Large retailers in shopping malls and the food service industry may also begin to reduce consumer facing locations as people acclimate to shopping online and prefer to use outdoor space for socialization and networking when social distancing restrictions are lifted. In essence, we as a society are changing, and business is rapidly evolving to survive in the “new world.”

Our education system is rapidly changing also.  Many local schools and universities originally viewed school closures as temporary until the Covid-19 risk had passed. However, institutions realize that Covid-19 may reemerge during the flu-season and so it would be prudent to plan how to educate remotely again in the near future, should the need arise. However, this is also eye-opening to the philosophy of education. Ivy-league university lectures are no longer constrained to the size of the lecture hall.  Rather, these highly regarded professor’s lectures can be recorded and live-streamed around the world for many students to participate in. This could be the beginning of a globalized education platform, and dare I say it, lower future education costs? 

A larger and murkier Covid-19 issue is the increase in government indebtedness related to sustaining the economy. The US government was already running a disturbing National Debt of $23.3 trillion prior to the pandemic. That figure has increased to $25.1 trillion and counting due to back-stops put in place to keep the economy afloat.[i] Prior to Covid-19, it was predicted under the existing planning provisions, social security and Medicare would be unfunded by 2035.[ii]  The path ahead is complicated and political, but it is hard to imagine there will not be some consequences to the US citizens and corporations in the form of higher future taxation to solve this daunting problem. Therefore, many financial planners and estate planners are determining ways to mitigate future taxation or pay taxes at current rates in preparation for the fearful road ahead.

Finally, in our battle to fight Covid-19, many have lost loved ones to this deadly disease. In that loss, we may find a new normal, different strength, and eventually new joys, but we will never go back to the way we were.  In mourning, perhaps we can remember to be grateful for the things we almost took for granted; our health, our loved ones, our amazing medical providers, grocery store workers, package delivery drivers and garbage truck drivers whose daily tasks keep the world going. Instead of focusing on differences of opinion, we may choose to come together in community and support one another through adversity. Covid-19 is not yet behind us, but it is already making a permanent impression on us and our future.

Wishing you all continued health and safety.  


 

This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  or performance returns of any Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc.  Investments client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Kondo Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

 

 

 
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EDUCATIONAL WORKSHOPS

2020 SCHEDULE 

 

Investing: What to expect in 2020

Saturday, January 25, 2020

9:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.

Ken Nakaoka Center*

1670 W. 162nd St.,

Gardena, CA  90247

*not sponsored by the City of Gardena

 

INVESTING DURING THE NEW NORMAL

Saturday, June 13, 2020

9:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.

Zoom Webinar

(Zoom link to be sent via email upon RSVP to info@kondowealthadvisors.com) 

 

 

 

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