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Ironically, Amazon Profits By Perpetuating Stock Bubble Myth

Published Friday, February 12, 2021 at: 8:02 PM EST

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With fears of a stock market bubble spreading, sweatshirts and tee shirts on Amazon Prime depict Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell in priestly garb holding a book proclaiming the “recession cancelled” and “stocks only go up.” Fashionable perhaps with the crowd on the r/WallStreetBets Reddit thread where it surfaced, the clothes, ironically, do not fit in with financial reality.

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This table shows different measurements of the “bubbleness” of the largest 10 companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500, ranked by market capitalization. (Market-cap is the number of shares of a company available to be purchased by the public multiplied by the company’s share price.)

By traditional measures, some of these important stocks look expensive, playing into the fears of a bubble. For example, Amazon was recently priced to trade at 73.7 times its expected earnings in 2021. To be fair, that is about 300% higher than the valuation place on expected earnings of the average company in the S&P 500 index. However, Amazon is expecting 2021 earnings will be 60% higher than its 2020 earnings! That’s astonishing earnings growth! It justifies a high p/e. 

Moreover, Amazon’s PEG ratio, a valuation metric that factors in expected growth, is 1.2. A PEG ratio of 1.0 represents a perfect correlation between a company's market value and its projected earnings growth. So the 1.2 PEG ratio is reasonable.    

It is ironic that you can buy a shirt on Amazon spreading the bubble myth.

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The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed Friday at an all time high of 3,934.83. The index gained +0.47% from Thursday and is up +1.22% since last Friday’s record-breaking closing price. The index is up +55% from the March 23rd bear market low.


Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial or tax situation, or particular needs. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor. Tax advice always depends on your particular personal situation and preferences. The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. Any investments or strategies referenced herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time and is not a guarantee of future results.

This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation.

Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. Past performance is not an indicator of your future results.

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